One post tagged with "signal"

Twelve combinations of event feed and window, measured: a catalyst does not separate the up tail from the down tail on this equities screen. The one arm that crossed t = 2 was logged as a lead and refused promotion.

Does a catalyst separate winners from losers? The measurement cannot say. No separation was detected across the twelve feed-and-window combinations, but the test can only rule out an effect larger than about 2.5pp — see the correction below. Measured: catalyst and no-catalyst names posted nearly identical spreads. The one signal that looked like it did — insider purchases within five days — was logged as a lead, priced against its own sixteen-test background, and refused promotion.